No.6 - The Real Debate Begins
Dear James,
I’m writing to you again even though I have still only received your pro forma reply to my previous detailed comments. I realise you are busy and that I am only one of your thousands of constituents. Nevertheless, our country is in crisis and I feel that I must explain my position and ask you yet again to make various decisions in the National Interest.
Ahead of the momentous vote on December 11th, it is strange that, despite the ever shriller claims of the Brexiteers, we should have no enemy at our gates, no invasion threatened and no conquering army waiting to drop paratroopers on our shores. I am sure that the Brexiteers must be disappointed by the absence of such hordes. No, I am afraid that the present crisis is all of our own making. It is a phoney crisis if only it were not so deadly serious.
Let me cut to the chase. When – no longer ‘if ‘– the meaningful vote rejects Mrs May’s deal, you will have to decide which way to go next. You may have been heartened today by the Daily Mail’s Survation poll showing that 41% of respondents say their MP should back Mrs May’s deal because it the best deal available. However, what the Mail did not say was that the poll also discovered that people backed a People’s Vote by 48% to 34%. And that they would prefer to stay in the EU than have May’s deal by 45% to 37%.
Today the Treasury has published its Impact Analysis on the various options before us. It shows that all options will deliver poorer economic performance than remaining in the EU. After fifteen years, Mrs May’s plan will leave the UK almost 4% worse off than staying in the EU. A no-deal Brexit would leave us 9.3% worse off. Philip Hammond admitted the same this morning. To listen to the contortions to which your fellow MPs have resorted has been painful, if not downright laughable.
Of course, the Brexiteers are already yelling that it is Project Fear Mark 2. Yet still they cannot explain how any of their vague plans outside Mrs May’s deal will leave us better off even in the long-term. All their options will make the country poorer. “But so what?“, they say. “We shall be free of the EU! And we shall delight in our new found freedom. The 9.3% loss of GDP is a price worth paying!” Such are their delusions.
So as Mrs May continues her stoic but futile attempt to put pressure on her MPs by selling her deal to the ‘ordinary people’, I think it is about time to think about your own next steps.
As I understand it, there is a Business Motion before The House in the next few days which will set the agenda for the December 11th vote. It has now been confirmed that amendments will be possible. As a first step therefore, could I ask you to support an amendment to include an option for a People’s Vote in the agenda? It would go against Mrs May’s mantra that this is impossible, but it would give you personally, a way out if /when that happens?
Following the Business Motion there will be the meaningful vote itself. It is clear that, as a loyal Tory, you will vote for Mrs May’s deal. At the moment it seems that you will be on the losing side. If this is the case then Mrs May has four options. To leave with no deal (total disaster), to renegotiate the deal (a snowball’s chance in hell), to call a General Election (far too risky) or to hold a People’s Vote. The latter is surely the only fair way to deal with our having sleepwalked into such uncharted constitutional waters? There is, of course, an outside chance that the Brexiteers may decide to back Mrs May’s deal in order to get them and us ‘over the line’. They may calculate that such a strategy may help them to regroup and continue their war as a guerrilla army (Dad’s Army?) once we have left. God help us if this happens. Four more years plus of further negotiation would make the recent negotiations seem like a walk in the park. It would be tantamount to national suicide.
After a failed vote on December 11th, Mrs May will have twenty-one days to put forward a new plan. So, as your second step, I would ask you to accept that a People’s Vote is inevitable and to vote for it as part of Mrs May’s post December 11th Plan. As I said, the nation is in crisis. So much has changed since July 2016. Everyone is so much better informed. So please, do not be afraid of more democracy. Surely a People’s Vote is the only way of discovering exactly what the country now thinks.
Finally, since you have been unable to respond to my e-mails, I have decided to continue my correspondence with you via my own blog. You will be able to see it at https://dearjames.uk . I doubt that you will have time for this but at least I shall be able to share my views with anyone else who has the national interest at heart?
Kind regards,
Brian