No. 114 - Now Comes the Hard Bit!
Dear James,
Now comes the hard bit. While claiming that Britain is about to usher in ‘a golden age’ and boasting of our ‘tremendous potential’ in the world, Boris Johnson now has to face realities. The first reality is in foreign policy. The second is home economics. On neither count is the news encouraging.
Firstly foreign policy. Donald Trump, in a fit of pique typical of a narcissist who can never contemplate losing face, has just assassinated the second most powerful official in Iran. Having made his move, Donald immediately doubled-down and proclaimed at an ‘Evangelicals for Trump’ rally in Miami, that ‘We have God on our side’. Trump is playing to his base. He is playing the tough guy and the base loves it. Last night, typical of this man’s personality disorder - causing a crisis and then claiming victory when it seems to resolve itself - he aired 800 new Facebook ads lauding the killing of Soleimani. Even if Iran’s initial retaliation leads to nothing more, Trump has already set in train the final departure of the US from the Middle East. In the very much longer term it could mean that America only returns to save Israel from final Armaggeddon. This is America First writ large. If this is draining the swamp, the resulting ‘geo-dehydration’ of the world is new geo-political bushfires everywhere.
Dominic Raab has said that the UK is ‘on the same page‘ as Trump. The signals are clear. We are in danger of being dragged into becoming a bauble on Trump’s Christmas tree of alliance breaking, trust destroying, constitution shattering initiatives around the world. Yesterday Putin was in Damascus with Assad, smiling broadly at their unbelievable good fortune. They only have to sit back and watch the West fragmenting, knowing that very soon they will be able to saunter into the resulting vacuum. Trump, now facing his own impeachment trial in Congress, has never had any strategy to follow. And still Boris calls Trump, his friend.
But foreign policy is only a fraction of Boris’s problem. There is also the small matter of home economics. Whether he gets or doesn’t get his Brexit deal with the EU there is going to be a tremendous aftershock. According to most reliable observers, we can expect a loss of GDP of 6% with a deal and 8-9% if it is ‘no deal’. Suddenly we will all be faced with the true meaning of ‘Get Brexit Done’. Massive new spending based on massive new debt, amplified by a hobbled economy. Sajid Javid is promising to borrow an extra £100bn over the next five years because interest rates are low. And if they rise? Then he will have to solve the productivity crisis which has dragged the country down for the last ten years. And what about the task of rebalancing a fractured nation, by addressing inequalities of wealth, gender, race, education, geography and opportunity? Finally, he will have to rebuild the public sector so damaged by your own party over the last ten years. Oh yes, and one other small thing. He will have to decarbonise the economy. All this on the basis of a meagre 1% annual growth of GDP. Good luck Boris!
So, as the economist Mat Lawrence argues, Brexit is just ’the firing gun on a wider decade of disruption’. The prime minister will not be able to declare the job done after the UK’s formal exit later this month. Instead we will be marking the first steps towards redefining our nation’s place in a rapidly-changing world. The Standard Chartered Bank has just predicted that Asia will represent 60% of global economic growth by 2030 and that Britain will fall down the international league table putting us behind India and Indonesia.
I don’t wish to be a Cassandra James, but we’re going to need much more than Boris’s dreams and bluster. We’re going to need friends and personally, at this moment in time, I’d prefer the friends we already have than the one currently trying to blow up the Middle East!
Kind regards,
BH - Your Concerned Constituent