No. 117 - Billy Bunter and the Tuck Shop Syndrome

Dear James,

You are probably too young to remember Billy Bunter but for those of us of a certain age, he was the public-schoolboy anti-hero of the black and white television age. Bunter was a ‘loser’, overweight, mischievous, devious and with a cheeky grin on his greedy face, always ready to raid the ‘tuck shop’. I think his public school chums would have called him ‘a bounder’.  

I explain this because yesterday, that same Bunteresque grin was on display as Boris Johnson formally signed the EU withdrawal agreement.  His face was brimming with that faux-coyness of a Bunter-Made-Good. He described the signing as a “fantastic moment” for the nation. It would end years of “argument and division” and was a positive change for the UK. Everyone knew however, that this was just a show for his new MPs and the true believers. In front of him lie months and years of trying to compensate for the potential losses from leaving the world’s largest trading block with a series of ‘mini-deals’ around the world. And I fear that ‘mini’ is the operative word here.  He has put us into a very weak bargaining position that even his ‘jolly good wheeze? ‘ grin will do little to alleviate. Don’t worry though. Behind him he has the darkly scowling Mr Cummings to reinforce his bulldog spirit. That should put the fear of God into Mr Trump! 

Because Boris’s first target must be a deal with the USA and, unfortunately for him - and for us - he is faced with a ‘transactional’ President. Mr Trump is a natural bully and this bully is ten times bigger than the UK. Boris’s ‘pal’ threatens friends and enemies alike and will think nothing of using his might to squeeze every last dime out of poor Boris. Trump’s favourite weapon is the trade-war. Brandishing this, it has long been clear that he wants to see the end of the EU and to pick off what remains in a piecemeal fashion. We are likely to be the first delicious morsel. But keep grinning Boris! In the worst case you and your cronies will be alright. Pity about those folk in the north though. 

Meanwhile, the US Trade Deal will have to go hand in hand with the EU Trade Deal. As Boris cosies up to the Americans he will have to minimize the damage with the EU. The great ‘reciprocal equation’ here will have to take into account that the more freedom that Boris wishes to have to trade with the rest of the world, the poorer deal he will get with the EU. That could have massive impact on, for example, the car, aviation, pharmaceutical and beveridge industries which are all closely tied to Europe in terms of supply chains and markets. The potential for job losses here are substantial and would impact more on the new Tory voters in the North and Midlands. 

Nevertheless, Boris and his motley crew will soon have to knuckle down. To silence the doubters, he will have to decide what he is willing to auction off in the short-term, so that he can present a quick fudge to his electorate in the form of a few initial political gains. The question is how many of those concessions he will have to sell off before the British public discover that Brexit has short changed them. Workers’ rights, consumers’ rights, chlorinated chicken, the NHS, are just some of examples of what is in the firing line. But Boris has one thing going for him. He and Trump have a similar chemistry. They are cut from the same cloth. Both are macho men who sense a shared destiny. Macho men know how to deal with each other. They are both populist narcissists who respond well to flattery but get nasty if criticized. Both have a particular appetite for younger women. Within these extremes, their secret conversations do not bare thinking about.

But back to Billy Bunter. He was the classic  ’Have your cake and eat it,’ type and Boris is his analogue.  As he crashes into reality, I wonder how long his Billy Bunter grin will survive? 

Anyway, enjoy your celebrations next week James. Or should I say enjoy your tea and cakes while you can. Because it cannot last. The Billy Bunters of this world usually come to a sticky end. 

Tee hee! 

Kind regards, 

BH - Your Concerned Constituent