No. 185 - The Last Throw of the Dice?

Dear James,

 The newspapers are calling it a final throw of the dice, a last ditch effort, the endgame. It is none of these things. It is the beginning of years of mutual antagonism between the government of Britain and its nearest neighbours. Boris is facing the ultimate lesson that he cannot have his cake and eat it and he doesn’t like it. Especially when the trading block with which he wishes to have free trade is five times bigger than you and knows that he cannot have freedom to do deals all round the world (the cake) and to have free access to the EU single market (the eating of said ‘cake’) at the same time.

Most commentators see the chances of an agreement as no better than 50:50. Many expect Boris to announce a no-deal in a televised address to the nation in which he will blame the French. In that case we are about to endure an outbreak of good old British jingoism from Boris and his masters, the ERG. It will be just like the good old days, before we learned to hate the ‘Hun’, when bashing the ‘Frogs’ was a national sport. Then, of course, we had some real enemies to deal with – Napoleon and later Hitler. Today our ‘enemies’ are peaceful grown ups, mature nations who want to collaborate to gain the myriad benefits of shared political and economic sovereignty. But little England, stuck in its sad mindset of ‘unfettered freedom’, its ancient glories and the sunny uplands to come, clings with Trumpian optimism, to an image of swashbuckling bravado as it heads out alone into the mid-Atlantic looking for friends, most of whom are staring at us in bemused bewilderment.   

About a year ago Boris Johnson went to Northern Ireland to meet the Taoiseach, Leo Varadkar. At that meeting Boris agreed to abandon the backstop agreement in which the UK confirmed that it would never put at risk the Good Friday Agreement by recreating a border  between north and south. The backstop would have kept Northern Ireland in the Single Market and the UK as a whole in a common customs territory with the EU. Boris decided to ditch the backstop and instead agreed a border in the Irish Sea. He and his supporters hailed a breakthrough. It was not a breakthrough, it was a breach of faith. It was an act that Theresa May said would be an act that no British government, particularly a Unionist one, could ‘ever contemplate’. At first Boris blustered that if any UK businessman was presented with a request for a border check, then he should tear it up and throw it in the bin. He very soon changed his tune and had to face the fact that a border in the Irish Sea would involve border checks. Discovering this fact earlier this year he initiated the Internal Market Bill and told the world that Britain would be prepared to break international law to override the Withdrawal Agreement. Our nation and the world was shocked that a British PM could tear up a solemn agreement with a neighbouring trading block. Boris and his government were revealed as the outcasts of the free world, the rule breakers in a world based upon the rule of law.

That neighbour is now having to deal with Boris yet again. No wonder then that the question of governance i.e. how to solve disputes between our nations, is top of the EU’s concerns. Who would trust a government that openly and deliberately flouts international law ever again? That’s why they want to make sure that Boris has no wriggle room. They are dealing with an unprincipled gambler.  

This afternoon Lord Frost is back in Brussels for his ‘last throw of the dice’. Surprisingly, he has been joined by Michael Gove which might suggest that Boris is going to offer to ‘repair’ the breach of international law as a ‘concession’ to bring forward a counter concession from the EU. But the EU know his games. Once bitten, twice shy. I hope I am wrong but I expect the talks to break down today but to be continued in the ‘minute before midnight’ scenario so beloved by the EU. But even then there is one issue that could lead us all to a total breakdown. It is the issue of trust.

When I was a kid I learned to look up to my government of whichever colour it was. We had respect for the rule of law and government operated according to that same body of law thus safeguarding the society in which we all lived. This incoherent government of cronyism, chumocracy, law benders and law breakers has damaged something special in our nation. Whether it is only the question of fish or the ‘level playing field’ that remain between us and a deal, there is one fundamental issue that could be the deal breaker. It is the issue of trust. 

Already this week we have seen the polls telling us that 57% of the nation think that Boris has done a lousy job with Covid-19. Well, ‘We ain’t seen nothing yet!’ With the pandemic still in full cry and the prospect of a no deal Brexit looming, Britain is about to enter a long period of turbulence that will probably end only when this generation of British nationalism has run its course and died off. Hold on tight everyone. It’s not going to be pleasant`! 

Kind regards, 

BH – Your Concerned Constituent