No. 87 – Boris gets a Deal but the DUP Throws a Huge Spanner into the Works.

Dear James,

What a morning! At about eight o’clock the DUP did what it does so well. It withstood Boris’s bluster and stood up for the united bit of the United Kingdom. Their statement said, "…as things stand, we could not support what is being suggested on customs and consent issues… We will continue to work with the government to try and get a sensible deal that works for Northern Ireland and protects the economic and constitutional integrity of the United Kingdom. ‘Customs, Consent and economic and constitutional integrity? Those are major issues that strike right at the heart of Boris’s deal. 

After the DUP bombshell it was Boris’s turn. At 11.00, he announced that he had a deal. Since then the UK and the EU have been involved in mini-celebrations of various sorts and on the surface it all looks as if everything is done. Except that it is not. What has happened is that the EU have shown that they have been flexible (and blameless!) whereas the responsibility now is on Boris. He now has the burden – and the potential shame – of negotiating and failing to get the ‘deal’ thorough the House. In other words, the blond bombshell’s head is on the block. Fail here and the Farage grin will widen to maximum aperture and Boris will join Mrs May, Mr Cameron and Mr Major as the latest victim of the Tory Part Civil War.

But we’re not there yet. Parliament now has to vote on Boris’s deal, designed by Mr Cummings and blustered through by Boris Johnson. Create momentum, push forward, never look back, never explain and always be positive. Behind that façade however, I see a man who is boxed in, desperate to avoid being forced to follow the Benn Act.

So when in a bind, what do you do? You shout from the rooftops, of course! ‘This is an excellent agreement that takes back control’. Recognise the last three words? The slogan invented by one, Dominic Cummings, for the 2016 Referendum campaign. This is Dominic’s moment of triumph. His genius once again shines through. He thinks he is about to win. Just a minute though. How has he pulled off this trick? Well, basically he and Boris have switched the border from Ireland to the North Sea and in so doing have created an economic and constitutional division between NI and the UK. This is something that Boris swore never to do. The DUP could never accept this and so again they have done what they did to Mrs May a year ago. They have said ‘No!’ They have said ‘No’ because the meaning of ‘Unionist’ is meaningless if you fail to defend that union.  But the same reasoning can be applied to the Conservative and Unionist Party except that this party is now led by Boris Johnson who has blatantly reneged on one of the key principles of that party. The vow to maintain the Union. Not surprised? Of course not. The great betrayer has betrayed his own party. Because no matter how you dress it up, this deal would be the first act of dismemberment of the United Kingdom. Northern Ireland would de facto become part of the EU. It would be on its way to the exit from the UK. 

Not only that. The DUP is also worried about the new consent mechanism which gives the two largest parties in NI, i.e. the DUP and Sinn Fein, the right to vote on the deal by a simple majority. That means that NI, with the help of minor parties, will have a natural pro-EU majority which, in turn, will mean that the DUP will be subject to a continuous veto. Which basically adds up to an Irish Backstop Mark 2. Nice one, EU! 

So in the next hours and days we are going to be subjected to a storm of spin, claim and counter-claim as Boris fights to get his deal through. The ERG, in particular, will have to decide now whether to support their NI counterparts or to follow Rees-Mogg in his own version of a betrayal - by ignoring the wishes of the DUP. 

So James, the crisis is upon us. The future of the UK for decades to come is nearing a decision. But it is the crisis I have always expected. The ‘deal’ is a lousy deal and in these turbulent times, there is plenty of time to change things. After all, these days, a  minute is a long time in politics. 

But not for you James. You have slavishly followed your party line despite its line having morphed beyond recognition in the last three years. Your principle has always been party before the national interest, 'do or die’. Today you support an extreme right wing government, led by a leader with scant regard for truth, loyalty or process, pursuing a policy that will leave our nation poorer for decades and ignoring half the population which it claims to serve.  And you expect to unite the country one day? Dream on! 

I have no doubt about the way you will vote on Saturday. Needless to say, I am, as ever, disappointed by my MP.

Kind regards,

BH - Your Concerned Constituent.