No.86 – In the ‘Name of Freedom’ - Boris begins the Great Betrayal Game

Dear James,

Did you see Marc Francois leaving the Cabinet Office yesterday? He was in a state of what used to be called ‘high dudgeon’. Then later I heard that Iain Duncan Smith had ‘exploded’ during a meeting with government officials regarding the on-going Brexit discussions. To add to the list, last evening Arlene Foster and Geoffrey Donaldson of the DUP spent ninety minutes with the PM. So far there has been no comment from those two. Their silence is ominous. It seems that not all is going smoothly for Boris Johnson. I wonder why?

I have no inside knowledge. I am far away from the scene and yet watching the body language has always been a favourite pastime for this distant observer. I would say that Boris is on the brink of several ultimate betrayals. Like all populists he is willing to ditch any alliance to get his way. Just like his friend Donald Trump who last week betrayed the Kurds in Syria after many years of their fighting on America’s behalf.  

It would seem that the current tentative ‘deal’ features a border in the Irish Sea. In simple terms, the UK would become a collector of EU taxes for any goods imported from the mainland into Northern Ireland. However, if the goods are destined for Northern Ireland, then that importer could get a rebate i.e pay in the end the UK rate. If, say, a car made in the UK is exported to Northern Ireland, it would have a 10% export tariff charged upon it but then if it were staying in NI, it would get that amount back through the rebate. Simple eh? Not really. What is to stop the importer getting his rebate and then driving the car across the border into Eire i.e the EU? Because, remember, there must be no border on the Irish mainland, no checks, no infrastructure of any kind. Boris would say there are ‘technical solution’ to this. Smugglers and swindlers would just smile and say, ‘Yeah, bring it on!’. 

And now imagine Arlene Foster’s response if all the above is true! The DUP have for years been saying ‘no border in the Irish sea’. It must not happen. It cannot happen. It would cut them off from the UK. Nevertheless, Boris will reassure the lady by saying that NI would remain de jure part of the UK customs union. Only de facto will it still be part of the EU customs union. De jure, De facto, De bloody whatfo! in effect Northern Ireland would be part of the EU for the foreseeable future. It would have been sold down the river by the Conservative and Unionist Party. Unionist? Don’t forget that this is Boris Johnson. He of the Big Lie. He who will betray any cause, any principle, any friend to get his way. 

And it’s not just Northern Ireland that he will be betraying. Apparently, to get his dream of a nation free to do deals with any part of the world, he is willing to scrap any inhibiting employment, environmental and food regulations thus exposing our population and our environment to every sort of threat. But most importantly, he is exposing our country to potential damage to our economy as a whole. The IFG (Institute for Government) predictions show that with any Brexit deal compared with remaining in the EU, UK GDP, by 2030, will range from between minus 10% to -18% (no deal) to minus 1% to -3% (Boris deal). The vast majority of forecasts however show a minus 4% to -10% loss of national income over that period. No forecast shows us better off.

What's more, economists now believe that there is a link between loss of trade and productivity whereby a 1% reduction of trade results in a 0.5% reduction in per capita income. With this productivity effect we end up with figures of minus 4.9% (May), minus 6.4% (Johnson) and minus 8.1% (no-deal) as compared with membership of the EU. In other words Johnson’s deal is likely to be worse than May’s deal. And that was bad enough! 

Boris has boxed himself in. He must get ‘his deal’ by October 31st , ‘Do or Die’ or be made to eat humble pie. But even the eating of said pie will no doubt be presented in Trumpian terms as some sort of personal triumph. The truth, however, will be plain for all sober and reasonable people to see. Any Brexit will leave us poorer. 

So James, just before the Boris Plan is revealed and explodes among us, why not see the obvious. That all these shenanigans are just a way for Boris and your party to save face. Wouldn’t it be far more honest to find out what the British public really want instead of continuously telling us that you are acting for the whole population? 

Go on. Take a risk. Vote for real democracy!  Ask for a Confirmatory Vote on any deal!

Kind regards,

BH - Your Concerned Constituent.