No. 90 Boris in Purgatory - Where's that Ditch?

Dear James,

Let’s be honest. Last night was a nail biting experience for everyone. For a while I thought that MPs might actually vote through the timetable motion against all the odds. But common sense won through. The vote was 322 to 308.  Parliament retained its time honoured responsibilities despite Boris’s attempts to short-circuit its procedures. To use a phrase that you will recognise James, ‘Parliament took back control’! 

Boris will, of course, claim a great victory. And, fair enough, he won the first vote 329-299, a majority of 30. Much greater than Therese’s May’s various attempts. But on the other hand he was, to use the language of the Red Tops, ‘humiliated’, because he can no longer keep to his self-imposed deadline of October 31st, ‘Do or Die’, ‘Come what May’. It’s not going to happen James. We are not leaving the EU on Halloween. Boris’s bluster has been called and he is now trying hard to avoid his ‘ditch’. 

So let’s get one thing clear. Last night parliament approved the process of the Bill but did not approve the Bill itself. For what it’s worth, my interpretation of last night’s votes is that our two main parties can still not find the courage to split into the factions which, in effect, divide each of them. The Labour ‘rebels’ wanted to show their ‘Leave’ constituencies that they voted for Boris knowing that in the next vote they could cancel the first. Likewise the Tory ‘rebels’ did not want to ‘betray’ their party and voted for the deal, knowing that on the next vote they could also cancel their first. In this way rebels everywhere could simultaneously show loyalty to their party and rebel against their party. So there is no certainty that, if Boris ran the first vote again, he would get the same result. Wonderful the way that parliament works eh? 

So Boris’s triumph was more of a procedural draw. He was left with two options. To reach across to the opposition to find a better timetable to discuss his ‘deal’ or to go for broke and look for an election. But Boris is Boris and he responded to his defeat in true Trumpian defiance saying that Brexit would go ahead at the end of the month. However, he added: “One way or another, we will leave the EU with this deal to which this House has just given its assent.” Do I detect a bit it of wiggle room there to avoid the fabled ditch? 

It looks at the moment as if our PM will push for an election. At the moment the polls show him to be up to 10 points ahead of Labour. But be careful for what you wish for Boris. In 2017 Mrs May was up to 20 points ahead of the nearest opponent. And look what happened to her. All you can say for certain about the polls is that voting intentions are ‘fluid’. A better word would be ‘volatile’. An election would be a big risk for your party James. 

To use a well worn expression, Boris is in office but not in power. The government is now dependent on the EU’s decision regarding the Extension to Article 50.  And even if they give us a three month extension, Boris is trapped by the Fixed Term Parliament Act in terms of deciding for an election or not. So this morning he states that he has ‘paused’ his legislation until the EU decides. 

How many times have I said it? A general election is no way to decide an issue of such huge dimensions for our nation. A General Election is, by definition, ‘general’. The debate will be blurred by many issues even though the central issue will be Brexit. And the most likely outcome would be another hung parliament.  

So James, please save us from more nail biting moments like last night.  Find some independence of thought. No nation should be trapped into a one-off vote particularly when it involves such a massive impact on our constitutional, economic and social lives. There is a much better way to resolve such a fundamental issue. It is, of course, a Confirmatory Referendum. 

Your profession has a name James. 

It’s called democracy!  

Kind regards,

BH - Your Concerned Constituent.