No.127 - Boris's Cavalry Rides Out!
Dear James,
Yesterday Boris sent out the cavalry. With tails up and pennants flying they charged into the ‘enemy ranks’ in Brussels and will soon strike fear into the hearts of the Americans in Washington. 100 British negotiators are in Brussels to begin the negotiations for a future free trade deal with the EU. Almost simultaneously other negotiators, fronted by the plucky Liz Truss, will be sent to the USA, to begin negotiations for the ambitious new relationship with our Anglo-Saxon cousins across the water. It all sounds so positive, so derring-do. Unfortunately, it is neither of those things. We’re just in the early stages of being subject to the flawed logic of the Brexiteers who so recently won a majority of seats in parliament on 47% of the vote. Ah well, that is the way our addled voting system works and so we might as well get used to it. Fine, but do not let those who voted for this myopic vision of a newly independent Britain get away with their logic. Our cavalry is heading for a major confrontation with reality. ‘Canons to the left of them, canons to the right of them, into the valley of death rode the one hundred.’
Remember the facts. Last year the EU accounted for 45% (£291 billion) of all our exports and 53% (£357bn) of all our imports. In the same year, the US accounted for less than 19% of all our exports (£118bn) and 11% of all imports (£59bn). If the UK wants to get a favourable deal with our brothers and sisters across the pond it will have to cave into the US demands on, for example, agricultural products and entry to the NHS. That is going to be some challenge and the gap is so wide that the outcome is likely to be a low grade fudge whereby we, the UK, end up with a much reduced rate of GDP growth and a wholesale change in the rules of things such as hygiene law, environmental protection, labour laws and drug prices. The government has already warned us about a ‘short-term’ hit but the implication is that we will be fine after that. Wishful thinking has always been part of the Brexiteers wish list. Oh dear!
Yesterday Professor Portes, a one time economic advisor to the government, confirmed that that the Government’s current modelling estimates that the potential economic benefits of a UK-US free trade deal are an underwhelming +0.2% p.a. of GDP over 15 years due to the economic costs of its Brexit proposals (-7.6% to -4.9% of GDP). Mr Trump has claimed that an FTA with Britain could increase our trade by 400%. However, our own Department for International Trade now says that a US trade deal will increase transatlantic trade flows by £15.3bn p.a. on a current trade flow of about £200bn. This amounts to an increase in trade of 7.5% compared with Mr Trump’s claim of 400%. 7.5% is not much considering the gap to be filled. More baloney from Mr Trump. More wishful thinking from Boris! Both of them living in cloud cuckoo land!
But fear not. All will turn out fine in the end because Mrs Truss has said that if either of the negotiations has not made enough progress by June, the government will walk out i.e. abandon the process and prepare to revert to a no-deal WTO Brexit. That’s a bit like Boris’s cavalry charge giving up circling the ‘Injuns’ and retiring injured to have a pop at a few rabbit warrens over the horizon. I think that Boris’s brave new model army is severely underestimating its power over the EU and the USA. But that’s how the populists work. Promise heaven and when that fails blame the naysayers. Unfortunately we have form in that department i.e dressing up disasters as great victories. Balaclava, Dunkirk and now Brussels?
But all that is for tomorrow. Today the cavalry is galloping into the future, its sabres held out straight before them, its pennants flying out behind in its full frontal assault on Europe. ‘Half a league, half a league, half a league onwards, into the valley of death rode the six hundred…” . And later it goes on, ‘Theirs not to reason why, Theirs but to do and die”.
Now where have I heard that last line before? Ah yes. Your leader Boris Johnson. Last year. Poor Boris - not so much the Winston Churchill of his dreams. More the Lord Cardigan of his nightmares.
Kind regards,
BH - Your Concerned Constituent