No.140 - Managing the Narrative: 'Honest Gov! It wasn’t us!"

Dear James,

Statistics? Who’s interested in statistics? Well, if you’re not already, you soon will be. The Coronavirus pandemic is continuing to be one of the most minutely recorded crises in world history. Every detail of the Covid 19 outbreak has been recorded statistically from the moment it first reared its head in Wuhan last November to today’s breakouts in the UK and the USA. Given the odd time lag or two (and the suspicious reporting from places like China, Russia and North Korea) the figures are immediate and factual. We know the rates of new infections. We know how many die each day. We know the geography of the spread. We know that ethnic minorities in our populations are likely to suffer more than others. We know the supply failures. We know the prices charged.  We know the time lines. Everything is there in spread sheets for us, one day soon, to compare how the world handled coronavirus. It is going to make for some ugly conclusions. And already the politicians are preparing their various narratives. Most will be exculpatory! 

As an example, one of our own government’s mantras has been, “We are taking the right measures at the right time’. This is supported by, “We’re following the science.” If you look behind both these shibboleths you find the political escape clauses in case of failure. The first is to cover themselves for being late to the game i.e it was science’s fault that we responded too slowly and the second is the ‘total abandonment of responsibility’ clause. “Honest gov! It was them. They did it, Not us!’ 

The comparisons have already started. Already we are seeing the contrasts between national strategies. Taiwan closed its border the day it got the first sniff of danger. South Korea went into a regime of data analysis, diagnosis and contact tracing almost immediately. Germany seems to have been much better prepared structurally and systemically than its compatriots in Europe. And at this stage it would seem that these early birds have dramatically reduced deaths in their nations. In New Zealand, PM Jacinda Ardern, announced in mid-March her new mantra.  ‘Go hard, go early’. So far it has worked. New cases 1049, deaths 4. Meanwhile, Italy, Spain, the USA and the UK seem to be the laggards. Unfortunately the term laggards understates the seriousness of the situation. These late reacting countries and their dithering have allowed thousands of unnecessary deaths to happen. Why? 

May I suggest that it is a mixture of ideology, arrogance, prejudice and unpreparedness that has lead to this massive neglect by governments? Government’s main responsibility is its ‘duty of care’ for its populations. So the fact that in the UK we have already lost 10,000 citizens will, one day, certainly be a question to put to Boris. In mid-March he told us it was our inalienable right to go to the pub – it’s part of our culture. As he announced the closure of pubs on March 20th, he reiterated that this was an attack on our national character. “We’re taking away the ancient, inalienable right of free-born people of the United Kingdom to go the pub,” he said. Mixed messages? No. We are ‘exceptional’. Just like the Americans. They too are exceptional. And what about ‘L’Exception Francaise’ so often touted by French politicians to justify unusual policies. These are all ways to avoid the general consensus. They are ‘tickets to ride’ for selfish nations. We reserve the right to be different. Even when such differences can lead to 10,000 unnecessary deaths? 

Bill Gates has already said that not many governments will get A grades when the reckoning starts. In a TED speech in 2015 he said the greatest danger to the world was a pandemic. No one listened. There has been a major failure of investment in health worldwide. Why?  Because, we have been following governments’ get rich quick ideologies while ignoring the herd of elephants in the room. These pachyderms are many but the most important are pandemics, climate change and inequality. Coronavirus is a massive wake up call James. The world is being made to listen. 

With regard to those spread sheets, I do hope that you and your masters are interpreting them correctly James?  And I don’t just mean the local ones. The emergencies facing us are global and unless we act now, there will be many more - and much worse - crises than the one we face today.   

Sweet dreams? 

Kind regards, 

BH - Your Concerned Constituent