No. 101 - The IFS Finds You Out James!
Dear James,
So you have been found out. Both of you, Tories and Labour alike. Fingers in those cookie jars. Telling fibs again. Swirling those veils. Trying to pull a fast one. Lighting up those future uplands with more huff and puff, more huster and bluster. Because, no matter how we try to say it James, that redoubt of independent thought concerning all things fiscal, the IFS, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, has just announced that neither of our two main parties are offering ‘credible’ spending plans ahead of the general election. The Director of the IFS, Paul Johnson, says that neither of the two is being honest with the electorate. Only the Lib-Dems are offering a credible set of financial proposals.
With regard to your Tory party James, the IFS report says that it is ‘highly likely’ that you would end up spending more than your manifesto pledges. Mr Johnson – definitely no relation to that other Johnson, Boris - says that the Tory plans for spending on public services, aside from healthcare, would still be 14% lower by 2023/24 than it was in 2010/11. Nevertheless, your party is continuing to "pretend that tax rises will never be needed to secure decent public services”. He also criticised your party for failing to "come up with any kind of plan or any kind of money for social care". A promise that nobody would have to sell their house to pay for care "would appear to be little more than an uncosted aspiration”. Finally, a pledge from the party not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT over the next five years was "ill-advised". "It is highly likely that the Conservatives would end up spending more than their manifesto implies, and thus taxing or borrowing more". Much as I would like to spare your blushes James, I think that most voters would see this as an example of yet another Boris expedition into the outer realms of unreality. Boris is being true to himself. A fib here, a flash of ankle there, a nudge and a wink for the susceptible and he is told that the electorate is his. There are still two weeks however to stop this gadarene dash to disaster.
As for the Labour Party, the IFS stated that it is "highly likely" they would need to raise taxes beyond what they are promising to pay for their proposed £80bn a year of extra spending. Mr Johnson said that this is "clearly not the case". Labour’s plans say they would see taxes rise for only the richest 5% of taxpayers. However, their proposed tax break for married coup[les and changes in the company dividend rules would, in effect, cost more for people outside the top 5% of income earners. "In reality, a change in the scale and the scope of the state that they propose would require more broad-based tax increases at some point," Mr Johnson added.
Now the usual response to such embarrassments by those of a populist persuasion, is to bring in Mr Gove and his clones to tell us yet again that ‘Britain has had enough of experts.’ In this case that would be dangerous since your party has always revered the IFS. Your alternative is to say that the report is based upon false assumptions – or at least different assumptions than your own. But that would subject it to the standard of trust and I wouldn’t go down that particular road James. When one compares trust in the IFS with trust in Boris, I’m afraid there is no contest. So I would recommend that your betters study the IFS report before they dig an even bigger hole for your party.
There is one ray of hope for the country in the IFS Report however. It says that only the Lib-Dems are offering a financially credible set of promises. In fact they bestow upon the Lib-Dems the epithets that you and Labour would probably crave.” The Lib-Dems are ‘the most fiscally prudent’ in terms of public finances. “The Liberal Democrats’’ manifesto, they state, “would involve lower levels of borrowing than under Labour or the Conservatives, but would still be seen as "radical" in "most periods”.
So the two frontrunners in the current race, are being revealed to be suspiciously ‘lively’. Someone has been into the stables and administered a substance into the horses’ veins. The substance is hyperbole, wishful thinking or to put it more plainly, lies.
Is this how you intended to ‘Get Brexit Done’ James?
Tut tut.
Kind regards,
BH - Your Concerned Constituent